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I Wonder What This Will Mean.....


sarah_ab

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Depends on how much he is like his dad...

This ^ mainly, but it's lso how much he toes the communist party line and all their paranoid dogma and rhetoric. Some people in the south feel that things can go either way, the North can become even more reclusive, or open up and decide to become a member of the modern world organization...or at least stop all the saber rattling and grow up and try and work like a 'real' country....sheesh. N.Korea has been almost a running joke for so long...no matter what happens, it will take a LOT for anyone to really take them seriously :P

Anyways, I'm glad the one nutcase is gone, at least we have the opportunity to start fresh and see if things can actually 'work' or if it will just be the same old same old Blah blah blah Communist dogma propaganda and other BS the scrape out of the mud hole they are in.

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I took a college class and had to do three reports on North Korea, so I've been watching the Korean Peninsula for years.

As many news sources are reporting, North Korea is a cult disguised as a nation-state.

By some reports, the capital, Pyongyang, only has power a third of the time, the rest of the country much less.

In military terms, which is what I know the most about, North Korea does have one of the largest standing armies, however, numbers can be rapidly overcome if they must rely on dated technology which is the situation in North Korea.

I'll give some big examples:

For the Korean People's Army, the majority of their tanks are based on 40-50-year-old Soviet designs that the US has ample experience facing and destroying from the Persian Gulf War in 1991. Shells from these guns have been noted to bounce off the turret armor of the M1 Abrams that the US uses as our main battle tank. However, North Korea is not a mechanized army by any means, most of their military is an infantry force. Their air force has MiG-29s, a still-potent Russian-made jet comparable to the F-16 in capable hands, which the North Koreans don't have, since by some reports, their pilots get less than ten hours of flying time a year, not enough to maintain an American private pilot's license, let alone maintain combat effectiveness. Their Navy is no match on any level for the US Navy, we can annihilate their naval capabilities in days if need be.

They have the numbers to launch an invasion of South Korea, but look for the US to immediately take steps to force food shipments to the peninsula to stop while the US builds up its forces in the region. It would have a detriment to the innocent civilians, but moreso to the North Koreans, since they don't get much food anyway, it would sow seeds of dissidence within their populace and within the peasant army.

Am I suspecting they're going to lash out? No, because I suspect the North Korean generals realize they can't win, their army spends more time practicing their goosestep than combat tactics, and they have seen the US military's handiwork.

I don't favor seeing Korean reunification, because if our older members remember German reunification, it was a mess, Germany took years to recover from the damage caused to their economy by having to invest so heavily in the Eastern zone. Imagine that on a scale fifty times larger, and that's what its like in North Korea. If their communist government were to fall by next Monday, it wouldn't be until 2025 before I'd see the country in any shape and form to reunify with the South without there being a massive destabilization of the South Korean economy.

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N. Korea is mostly a hollow sabre-rattling semi-Cambodia (as it was durinhg the Pol Pot regime. The main difference is that their people are indoctrinated and convinced- and that makes them dangerous! At some point they will move south- it is a given. And even though the world is ready for that, the fighting will be intense fir awhile with lots of civilian casualties. If the north has nuclear weaponry it will be quite messy, which is what the world is aiming to prevent from happening more than anything. As to their new leader, I think he will be more moderate and slowly bring change for the better OR he will be the father-trained nepotistic-nutcase worse than his parents. I think we will know within a few months, because that country is stretched so thin food and economy-wise that something will have to give PDQ or it's population will starve and freeze to death, leaving no support fro the regime.

Bettypooh

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