Diaper supply problems.

[babykeiff]

On 3/20/2020 at 3:29 PM, willnotwill said:

Yep, and remember things shipped from overseas typically come by container which from Asia takes about eight days.   So if you depelete the supply chain it takes more than a week to adjust.

As it is, things are starting to reappear in stores.   Costco had decent stocks of anything with the exception of toilet paper and for some reason fresh chicken.   There were limits on other things and signs warning you that others were not returnable (you hoard it, you're stuck using it.   Normally Costco takes things back.   We'll get like ten cases of water for a community event and they will take back what we don't use).

I had to read your post multiple times... as I thought you said delete not deplete the supply chain.

In relation to chicken, SARS-COV-2 has a partner virus called H7N1 which is lethal to chicken. I wouldn't be surprised if Costco supplier had to cull some of its chicken stock.

I can understand retail not accepting returns. They simply don't have the space to put it. Also, for quality and hygiene reasons, they can't resell it as the quality in the supply chain has been broken by a customer storing it wherever.

[willnotwill]

Not that I heard of any chicken plague recently.  H7N1 is influenza, not in anyway remotely related to sars other than being a virus.   I'm not sure where you get it's a "partner."   We've not seen any US outbrrakes of that in a couple of years.    No, it's just rolling panic buying.    It's like our usual by all the milk, bread, and toilet paper before the snow storm, but of longer duration and national scope.   We're seeing now that the sweatshops that are the meat processing plants are seeing large hits of COVID due to the workers being cooped up (pardon the expression) in close proximity with others for long hours.

The chcken came back.   I cracked up when we had a run of all the premade "hamburger-like" things.   There was still plenty of ground beef but I guess forming patties was too much work.   THen we had a run on flour, yeast, and other baking goods.   I guess people decided to get domestic in lock down.

As for Costco, they always had a policy of accepting any returns (no matter how unusable it came back).    How ever, those binging on cases of water and TP and the like pushed them to end that policy (at least on certain items for now).

[Diapered Dave]

How the world has changed. We're talkin' chicken in a diaper forum. But speaking of chicken, I was in Sam's Club the other day, and there was ZERO fresh packaged chicken... None.  In the section where they usually had the fresh packaged chicken, the cooler was stocked with produce, so it looked like they were not planning on getting chicken in anytime soon. All they had was a small, picked-over section of frozen chicken in the freezer section. And that was almost gone too.

I was listening to a guy on the radio the other day, who works in  the meat processing industry. He was saying that because of all the meat processing plants that are closed, many farmers are killing and burying their ready-for-market livestock, because of the interruption in the supply chain flow.  He also said we'll see more meat shortages in the coming weeks. 

[willnotwill]

Actually, the biggest hit is that the restaurants aren't buying which is slowing both the meat processing and the farm availability.    There hasn't been a whole lot of widespread shutdown of the plants but a few have been hard hit and due to their nature are concentrating points for COVID (lots of people working close under poor conditions).

A lot of the smaller producers who sell directly to high end restaurants are scrambling.   I've got an eigth of a cow coming and a lamb I think from local producers.    My local mushroom/blueberry farm has lots of mushrooms, too.

[babykeiff]

3 hours ago, willnotwill said:

Actually, the biggest hit is that the restaurants aren't buying which is slowing both the meat processing and the farm availability.    There hasn't been a whole lot of widespread shutdown of the plants but a few have been hard hit and due to their nature are concentrating points for COVID (lots of people working close under poor conditions).

A lot of the smaller producers who sell directly to high end restaurants are scrambling.   I've got an eigth of a cow coming and a lamb I think from local producers.    My local mushroom/blueberry farm has lots of mushrooms, too.

I would agree to that IF people weren't buying produce and cooking at home. Just because the restaurant market has closed doesn't mean that people don't eat! Yes, the food processing and production market has adapted to a different buyer / or closed. Business needs to adapt or close.

[willnotwill]

10 hours ago, babykeiff said:

I would agree to that IF people weren't buying produce and cooking at home. Just because the restaurant market has closed doesn't mean that people don't eat! Yes, the food processing and production market has adapted to a different buyer / or closed. Business needs to adapt or close.

The nature and supply chains are different between people cooking at home and restaurant use.   These heritage breed folks who are selling to specialty restaurants can't just up and sell the same thing to people who are eating at home.    People eat hamburgers and mass market chicken at home, not specialty cuts of meat and free range birds...

 

[babykeiff]

5 hours ago, willnotwill said:

The nature and supply chains are different between people cooking at home and restaurant use.   These heritage breed folks who are selling to specialty restaurants can't just up and sell the same thing to people who are eating at home.    People eat hamburgers and mass market chicken at home, not specialty cuts of meat and free range birds...

 

If they can't/won't adapt to changing needs, they I wish them luck as they close down. The core idea of business is to meet a consumer demand. If the demand is non-existant, adapt or close.

Under your perception, the world would still be employing the following people:-

• lamplighters = people to light and extinguish gas street lights > replaced by electric light and timers / daylight sensors
• elevator operators > replaced by buttons and micro switches
• switchboard operators = person to plug in/out lines to interconnect phone districts> replaced by PBX's and other digital call routers
• Typesetters and linotype operators = people who used to place metal blocks for each charachter into a printing press> replaced by offset / laser printers
• Computer = usually females who would compute numbers all day for banks etc. > replaced by a calculator
• Pinsette = person who would set up the pins at a bowling alley > automated.
• Clock winder = person who wound up mechanical clocks > replaced by electronic winders and then electric powered clocks
• Icemen = person who harvested ice for bar and retail sale > replaced by automatic ice makers / domestic fridge.
• Knockerupper = person who knocked on the bedroom window to wake the occupant > replaced by alarm clock
• Leech Collector = people who collected leeches for blood-letting, a common medical practice > no longer practiced today by medicine, yet some politicians seem to be blood suckers.
• Lungs = people who blew on the fires of blacksmiths / chemists to enhance the flame > replaced by bellows / gas fires
• Necessary Women = females employed to empty and clean chamber pots. Some also cleaned the rear of children / some adults > replaced by flushing toilet
• Phrenologists = people to read and determine intelligence and status by head shape > proven to be false
• Powder monkey = person to load gun powder into ship guns > replaced by the compound bullet
• Rattners = people who caught live rats and sold same to pubs etc for dogs etc to eat as a form of entertainment > practice died out
• Resurectionists = people who dug up dead bodies and sold same to medical colleges > might be still going on!
• Town Crier = person who would read out local notices to towns due to people being unable to read > replaced by newspaper and now internet
• Town Scribe = person who would write letters for people who were unable to write > replaced (in some countries) by education!!!

Moores law originally told us that for every 18 months, technology doubles in speed and halves in price. This has expanded to include everything, except those businesses that are propped up by government and/or government agencies.

[willnotwill]

Your points would be better taken if you'd avoid the insults and putting words in people's mouths.   I never said that busiensses didn't need to change.   I was pointing out how it is.   These producers are trying, but have not yet been able, to retool their business strategy in the last month and a half that the shutdowns have been in effect.   I pointed out that many are scrapping to sell to the public in alternate channels, but not necessarily any body is even buying.   Yes, if restaurants don't reopen, they'll go under (or have to do something else).

I disagree with you about Moore's law.   First, you mischaracterize Moore.   The law is based on chip complexity (number and cost of transistors).   In fact, it's slowed down over the last few years.   Moore himself predicted there would be physical limits to his prediction.   There are just physical laws that prevent things from getting too small.    Moore also points out that the human costs (R&D, test, and manufacturing) are increasing steadily as technology progresses.

 Moore's law doesn't necessarily apply to anything else.  Most things are not decreasing in price nor getting twice as good (government subsidies or not) and not at the rate proedicted by Moore.  

There are a whole lot of other "laws" posited in economic theory as applied to various technologies (biotech, drug development, telecommunciation, information storage...)

 

[babykeiff]

23 minutes ago, willnotwill said:

Your points would be better taken if you'd avoid the insults and putting words in people's mouths.   I never said that busiensses didn't need to change.   I was pointing out how it is.   These producers are trying, but have not yet been able, to retool their business strategy in the last month and a half that the shutdowns have been in effect.   I pointed out that many are scrapping to sell to the public in alternate channels, but not necessarily any body is even buying.   Yes, if restaurants don't reopen, they'll go under (or have to do something else).

I disagree with you about Moore's law.   First, you mischaracterize Moore.   The law is based on chip complexity (number and cost of transistors).   In fact, it's slowed down over the last few years.   Moore himself predicted there would be physical limits to his prediction.   There are just physical laws that prevent things from getting too small.    Moore also points out that the human costs (R&D, test, and manufacturing) are increasing steadily as technology progresses.

 Moore's law doesn't necessarily apply to anything else.  Most things are not decreasing in price nor getting twice as good (government subsidies or not) and not at the rate proedicted by Moore.  

There are a whole lot of other "laws" posited in economic theory as applied to various technologies (biotech, drug development, telecommunciation, information storage...)

 

I pity you. You perceive a contradictive view in a debate is an insult OR, as you state, you now agree with my point of view, and still take it as an insult!

Secondly, I did NOT distort Moore. "Moore's law is the observation that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles about every two years" It has nothing to do with the cost of each transistor. It has a direct correlation to the cost of each constructed integrated circuit as cost per unit decreases proportionally to the number of units manufactured. MIT, as well as others, have extended this idea to include everything. See Moores Law and the Origin of Life

Most understand the gain in mass production. Some countries have mastered this. Weak business model / failing business blame mass production / cheap knockoffs / market share / customer demand / colour of the moon or some other misguided idea for their failure. In reality, it is poor work processes that create business failure - supporting a loss making venture is destined to failure.

Government capital investment in any business model is destined to failure. The capital boost to a business ensures that business can survive and compete with its competitor, a successful business. Eventually, the competitor will obtain the lions share of that market, and the capital boosted business will fail unless it gets another capital investment. The cost of the original capital investment is spread equally among both business customers which, due to customers having less disposable income, the total customer base decreases and, more importantly, the customers become more discerning. Most customers will prefer to deal with the better business either cause they are aware of the better business practices, or they abhore the support that the weaker business received.

As a result, not only does the government capital invested business fail, the reduced funds within the economy reduces the ability for the economy to actually grow. Therefore, bailout funds towards a business destines that business and that country to fail / stagnate until the capital balance is re-established.

 

[willnotwill]

Sorry, I guess we're going to have to disagree in part.  While I agree that businesses have to adapt to stay alive, I disagree with much of your support (and yes your misapplication of Moore to things other than chip complexity) for that statement.   Government suport is at best a band-aid, indeed. 

[babykeiff]

55 minutes ago, willnotwill said:

Sorry, I guess we're going to have to disagree in part.  While I agree that businesses have to adapt to stay alive, I disagree with much of your support (and yes your misapplication of Moore to things other than chip complexity) for that statement.   Government suport is at best a band-aid, indeed. 

In relation to Moores Law, Gordon E. Moore, co founder of Intel had the tennant, in 1965, based on the density of integrated circuits. This comes from the observations stated by Douglas C. Engelbart in 1959 where it was based on the way electronic circuits were being advanced and that the MOSFET and transistor had replaced the valve. Englebert stated this premise in the 1960 Semiconductor Conference, a conference which Moore attended. Later, Moore changed his law to a time period of 18 months instead of 12 months to more correctly reflect his mathematical estimates. Moores law is stolen from Englebert. More information in relation to this can be found at Wiki Page, and its sources If one observes modern, surface mount and integrated component based electronic circuits, and try to replicate the same with discrete through hole components, it is easy to see what Engelbart was referring to. However, when one compares any device produced today, and compare it to any device of yesteryear, Engelbart's assertions are easy to apply. 

"Moore's law is an observation and projection of a historical trend. It is an empirical relationship and not a physical or natural law" - Direct from WIKI

This is Moore attempting to hide his own mathematical error, and Moore's misunderstanding of Engelbart's intention. In 2015, Moore tries to step back from his own misunderstanding by stating that he for saw a natural saturation.

Moore's law, or more correctly, Engelbart's Law states that every 18 months, X will double in speed and half in price, and has been applied to every discovery since the turn of the century. There are certain items that fail to keep up with this due to business monopoly and/or controlled stagnation of said market. This stagnation can be easily seen in the car industry. In 1794, 1807, 1904 (depending the version of history one reads) the carbon based fuel internal combustion engine was marketed. 2020, the ICE has been made more powerful, but due to OPEC etc, most of the world is still dependent on ICE in some form. That is 100+ years later. The alternative, that was originally created in 1880, the electric car, has only started to be used in the last 20+ years. Why - due to the monopoly of OIL.

Whether electric or ICE is better doesn't come to question due to some Gov. pumping trillions in state aid to OIL producers. In my mind, the electric concept has to be better- it is better from a business sense. It has survived in a hostile marketplace while its competition survive on the Gov. bailouts. I predict that the day Gov. stop bailing out OIL is the day OIL dies.

Some countries are already removing their dependency on OIL in all forms - complete / limited ban on single use plastics :- looking for glass / paper etc as alternative, forcing suppliers to collect and recycle reusable plastic, increasing electric production using renewable energy sources such as hydro, wind etc, removing OIL and gas burning electric generators, electrifying bus and rail lines, re-introduction of electric trams that the OIL companies tore up in the 1960/70s. This lock-down has woken up a lot of gov. and countries to the pollution created by carbon based fuels.

In relation to the driven failure of a business due to gov. capital investment, one needs to compare Ryanair against FlyBe or someone similar. Flybe was propped up numerous times by the UK gov. We all are aware that the customer service side of Ryanair is junk, but as a business model as a cheap flight cost airline, Flybe matching both prices and scheduling still could not compete. It was due to the large capital waste encountered by Flybe in supporting a fat management structure. Second to this, to fund the gov. capital investment, the tax rate on flying was increased by the UK gov. This ensured that the customer base contracted which further put stress on Flybe and Ryanair. Due to the fact that Ryanair could still produce profit and Flybe could not, Flybe was eventually closed in 2019.

Gov. support is similar to feeding a heroine addict, heroine. It has no advantage other than to provide short-term relief to the addict, who will be looking for another 'fix' tomorrow. History has taught us that. Give a hungry man a fish today, and one will need to do that tomorrow. Teach a hungry man to fish, and you will feed the world.

It all comes back to Darwin theory - survival of the fittest NOT survival of the FATTEST!

.

 

[technomonkey]

Northshore does not have any shortage. It seem like diapers are still being shipped from china.

 

NorthShore Care Supply has increased its donations of medically necessary supplies to help those in need during this time and is making sure customers receive the products they need.

https://www.northshorecare.com/blog/working-together-to-help-end-diaper-need?utm_content=blog-featured&utm_source=epicampaign&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=blognewsletter-May0720

 

[carsfan]

I’m in Canada and having a heck of a time with Rearz. Happy you’re getting stuff easily from NS