Stupid Weather Forcasts

[rusty pins]

So, here it is about the 10th time that my DL friend and I have planned to go fishing in Lake Michigan this morning and cancled out. Why? Because of the weather! Everytime we plan a fishing trip we always check www.weather.com for the 10 day forcast for our zip code. We keep checking the weather up until a day or two before we are supposed to go out and sure enough, the prediction for bad weather crops up and we cancle. Often the prediction is for beautiful weather and then a couple days before the weather turns bad. I can understand that, but the past couple times here is what happened.

Last week we planned to go fishing today, this Tuesday morning about 7am. The 10 day showed scattered thunderstorms all week long so I was kind of dubious about the possibility of getting out in the boat. Sunday the forcast was for thunderstorms all day long, Monday and Tuesday so my DL friend figured that once again the weather wasn't going to be good enough to fish and I agreed We decided not to go fishing. Yesterday it did storm pretty hard at around 9am but then the rest of the day was nice and sunny (even though the web site stated thunderstorms all day Monday and Tuesday up to 9pm Tuesday night). I did a final check of the web site last night at 8pm and it showed thunderstorms starting at 4am this morning and lasting to 10pm this evening. I figured the storms were coming and I don't want to be out in Lake Michigan in a boat when they come up. After all, you would think that a website dedicated to forcasting the weather all over the country would know what they were talking about!

That brings us to the presant! I woke up this morning expecting rain and storms but it's nice and sunny out! I just checked the forcast for my area and there isn't a hint of storms all day long! How can a national weather channel and web site keep doing this time and time again? I know weather is tough to predict sometimes but from 8pm showing thunderstorms ALL DAY LONG to 7am the next day showing CLEAR WEATHER WITH NO STORMS OR RAIN ALL DAY. We could be out on the lake right now in our wet diapers fishing but instead we are both just going to have lunch later and lament the fact that once again the Weather Channel provided everyone in my area with very poor service! One of these days I'm going to learn my lesson about their forcasts! On the other hand, if we had decided this morning to go out fishing based on the most recent forcast of clear sunny weather all day long, I could see us out on the lake and a huge thunderstorm with lightning comming up and causing us all kinds of trouble. I still say better safe than sorry but I just would expect a more accurate forcast from a company that makes weather forcasting their business! What's the point in a FORCAST when you have to wait until the actual day to find out what the weather is actually going to be anyway?

[KittenAB]

Weather forecasting is mostly just educated guesses. Their point is entertainment ... though some areas are really predictable, most are not. It depends on where you live. In the Northwest it's almost completely unpredictable. But here's the thing, if you listen closely you will hear them say "chance of" not "this will certainly happen."

[Darkfinn]

As an amateur Meteorologist I can tell you that no forecast can be accurate beyond 3 days. There are simply too many variables to calculate. When weather stations show a "5-day" or "10-day" forecast they simply go by almanac averages after the first 3 days.

Also, weather.com is notorious for getting things wrong. They forecast for the entire nation and therefore aren't really good at any one particular location. If you want more accurate forecasting stick with your local stations.

And Kitten... there is a lot more education in those "educated guesses" than you would believe. It is not just for entertainment... it is an art based on knowledge of local trends and some really complex multi-variable equations for predicting temperature fluctuations and pressure system movements.

[KittenAB]

And Kitten... there is a lot more education in those "educated guesses" than you would believe. It is not just for entertainment... it is an art based on knowledge of local trends and some really complex multi-variable equations for predicting temperature fluctuations and pressure system movements.

I will concede that there is an art to it, and that's why I said "educated guesses" instead of "wild guesses". But admit it, most of the forecasters on television are just reading what a computer tells them. As for the real meteorologists, they are not usually the ones who get to post or say their forecasts on the popular places, like TV, forecasting sites, etc..

[Guest rosemonde10]

This is why weathermen suck:

"Hello and good morning everyone. Today there's going to be a 50% chance of rain. So it may rain, it may not. Let's just say 50%. The high temperature may reach 200 degrees, while the low may be -200 degrees. The average temp falls somwhere in that prediction. Tomorrow there's a good chance there may be clouds, or a light breeze, or a tornado, or hail, a tsunami, an earthquake, a flood, lightning, or even Satan himself may rise from hell and take us all..........It's all a 50% shot."

[Darkfinn]

As for the real meteorologists, they are not usually the ones who get to post or say their forecasts on the popular places, like TV, forecasting sites, etc..

Again... no. I was a member of the local chapter of the American Meteorological Society in NC for a number of years. I met several TV Meteorologists and can assure you that they are the ones making the majority of the forecasts. They are more than just a pretty face talking to the camera.

[Hasen]

I'm a ME and find it fun to try and analyze the weather mans prediction. The ampunt of mass and enery envolved is amazing. NOAA has some of the biggest computer in the world just to make educated gues

[PArms]

Try weather.gov

Type in your zip on the left

Click on your location in Lake Michigan on the map

Scroll down and click on forecast duscussion

This should help explain why they have trouble sometimes. They have multiple computer models. When they are in agreement, they usually just forecast what the models say. When they aren't, then they need to rely on local knowledge. The weather channel isn't local.

Little known fact: You may actually call your local NWS station and ask for a forecast!

[mogumbo]

I've always maintained that if they could predict the weather... they would.

[Guest rosemonde10]

I've always maintained that if they could predict the weather... they would.

But they can't....so they don't..

[Kilding]

I only use a forecast for possible temps. Other then that, its radar and I judge for myself. Between the weather.com app for my Blackberry or when Im home it's Radarplus thru Accuweather.com. I pay to use their Raw data feed. But there is alot of info from the options I can chose from. Radar for rain and snow isn't always 100% but I can give me an idea. Not only is weather interesting, but it can surprise you with natural beauty. I miss the storms in New Mexico and Texas. Nothing like what we have in Utah.

[belinda_sue_fox]

Weather forecast..... Whats average for time of year...thats what your likely to get. Look out the window...thats what your going to get today.

But yea i was going to say after three days they look up average for that day over records...then have a guess by looking out the window.

Anything over three days consult the mad cat woman.

[Dougie]

Look out the window...thats what your going to get today.

Not always true in the Northwest. Yesterday it was sunny with light clouds in the morning. By the afternoon it was raining heavily and dark clouds covered up the sun.

[rusty pins]

All good points and I understand that they really can't predict things 10 days out, or even 5 days out. But from 8pm in the evening to less than 12 hours later having such a big descrepancy

8PM: Thunderstorms starting at 4am lasting all day until 10pm. 7AM the next morning: No rain or storms predicted all day long, partly sunny in morning, sunny in afternoon.

That's pretty far off and quite a difference in predictions in less than 12 hours.

[KittenAB]

Not always true in the Northwest. Yesterday it was sunny with light clouds in the morning. By the afternoon it was raining heavily and dark clouds covered up the sun.

Yeah, weather here is like craps ... you never know what you'll get ... but there is a high chance of clouds. LOL

[AutieAB]

I ain't no meteorologist (although I find it interesting) but I guarantee you I can predict the weather in North GA for the next 10 days with pinpoint accuracy:

HOT (daytime highs mid-90s, night-time lows mid-70s, heat indices 100+)

Sunny

Calm to zero-wind

Very humid

10% chance of storm in the evening.

Do I win a prize?

Seriously though, get the weather from the NWS. Sometimes you have to learn to interpret some of their output because it can be a bit technical but it's normally the most reliable there is.

[babyfett]

Also remember that meteorologists have the butterfly effect/chaos theory working against them.

[Guest little_jonny]

weather in ohio during august is the hottest month of the year for us. even when i work near the lake. it can be in the morning and it will already be 80 degrees at 7:00 in the morning... i'm ready for the snow to start faling

[Bettypooh]

I ain't no meteorologist (although I find it interesting) but I guarantee you I can predict the weather in North GA for the next 10 days with pinpoint accuracy:

HOT (daytime highs mid-90s, night-time lows mid-70s, heat indices 100+)

Sunny

Calm to zero-wind

Very humid

10% chance of storm in the evening.

Do I win a prize?

Seriously though, get the weather from the NWS. Sometimes you have to learn to interpret some of their output because it can be a bit technical but it's normally the most reliable there is.

Very similar here in SC, but they hedge their bets by saying "a chance of afternoon and evening showers and thundershowers" every day from mid-spring till mid fall So they're usually right- there is that chance Best forecaster here is Accuweather- they nail the forecast bullseye better than anyone else It may be different elsewhere but that's how it goes here. And I do keep up with the weather far better than most

Bettypooh

[Bettypooh]

weather in ohio during august is the hottest month of the year for us. even when i work near the lake. it can be in the morning and it will already be 80 degrees at 7:00 in the morning... i'm ready for the snow to start faling

I used to live near the gulf coast. Almost half the year at 6 AM it was already 90 degrees or more and climbing with 90% humidity, climbing just as fast Slow cooling down to a low of 75 degrees began around 9 PM unless we were blessed with a evening thunderstorm Too hot for me so I moved to SC This year here has been nearly that bad and if it keeps this up I may begin to learn to like snow....

BTW, when the snow there is neck-deep will you be posting here about how you wish the summer would hurry up and arrive?

Bettypooh

[PArms]

BTW, when the snow there is neck-deep will you be posting here about how you wish the summer would hurry up and arrive?

Bettypooh

Vicious cycle. The main reason why we have technology today! If the wx was always perfect (which is different for everyone anyway), then we'd have nothing to talk about or complain about and no reason to create anything that keeps us from the elements. There would be no reason for technological advancements. Where did technology start and where does most of it exist? The part of the globe that has seasonal wx patterns!